DES MOINES – Michele Bachmann might not be on the Illinois primary ballot this spring if she does not perform well in the Iowa Caucuses Tuesday.
Bachmann’s campaign seemed off to a solid start when she won the Iowa straw poll in August, but she faces challenges as Iowans prepare to choose a Republican to challenge President Obama.
Bachmann is ranked last out of six GOP candidates, with just 7 percent of those polled last week saying they would support her, according to The Des Moines Register’s poll released over the weekend.
And while the Republican candidates have raised a combined $1.6 million in Illinois, Bachmann reporting raising only $60,000 of that. Nationwide, Bachmann has raised $8.4 million compared to top GOP fundraiser Mitt Romney’s $32.2 million.
Some political observers have said if Bachmann hopes to move on to later primaries, she needs to finish in the top three Tuesday night in Iowa.
“The conventional wisdom is that there are three tickets out of Iowa,” said Rachel Caufield, an associate professor at Drake University’s Department of Politics and International Relations.
“Much of Iowa is about expectations,” said Caufield, and Bachmann’s expectations “are so low right now that even if she came in fourth, she could spin it as a pretty significant achievement.”
But fourth-place publicity might not be enough to carry Bachmann all the way to Illinois – whose primary will be held March 20.
The top three finishers usually get a “significant influx of money and support from activists around the country,” said Caufield, and money is important in a race where the majority of primary races happen early in the primary season and require a costly campaign presence in as many as 20 states.
With limited finances and fierce competition, Bachmann’s campaign managers have said they will skip the aggressive campaigning in New Hampshire’s primary next week, choosing to focus their limited resources on South Carolina’s Jan. 21st primary.
A top-three finish in Iowa would bring money Bachmann’s campaign would need to continue beyond the early races in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
“Personally, I think Bachmann’s time is over,” said John F. Di Leo, columnist of the conservative Illinois Review.
Though he was not offering a prediction about the outcome of Tuesday’s caucuses, Di Leo said the combination of Bachmann’s dwindling finances, low poll performance and a number of embarrassing debate gaffes might discourage conservative supporters from backing Bachmann in a primary race.
“Really, a primary and caucus vote is a tactical vote,” said Di Leo.
And while conservative Iowa caucus goers will pick the candidate who best reflects their values, Di Leo said, they will also consider who will be best positioned to win in November — often a more moderate candidate.
Di Leo said he believes there would be support for Bachmann in Illinois if she were to make it to the Illinois primary 11 weeks from now.
Bachmann is “a terrific conservative from Minnesota, a state, like Illinois, that is Democratically leaning,” said Di Leo. But by the time candidates reach Illinois, only those who are most likely to win the party nomination are seriously viable.
Di Leo said even candidates with solid wins in primary races, like Mitt Romney in the 2008 Republican primary, have dropped out of the race before reaching Illinois’ primary.
But even if she exits the race before March 20th, that doesn’t mean Illinoisans have seen the last of Bachmann.
“Getting out earlier rather than later can be a good way to keep open the possibility of a nomination for vice president,” said Caufield, “Since it means you’re not publicly criticizing your opponents on the national level.”
Bachmann’s Iowa campaign manager declined to comment on the status of the Minnesota congresswoman’s future campaign plans.
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